Market info
Once again, I have to state, it has been a long time since I have blogged. It's not that I don't have something to say, it's that When busy with other things, I don't think about sitting down and writing a blog. Some people are great at it, me, not so much. Still, I think it is important to provide information about our market that is helpful to you. So, am I to do. I don't believe in hiring someone to write my blogs, although I have been approached many times. I find that disingenuous. So, despite my often long lapses between blogs, here I am again, and hopefully, you'll see a few more in reasonable amounts of time.
I am including this months report from The Cromford Report (TCR). TCR is a widely used and well respected data analyst for the real estate industry in the Phoenix metro area. I think you will find the insights helpful.
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Market Summary for the Beginning of June
It feels almost like the inverse of 2005.
In the second half of 2005, supply rose dramatically but no-one seemed to take any notice. There was a widely believed myth that prices could never go down. Between March 31, 2005 and June 30, 2006, active listings rose from 8,394 to 45,729 (up 445%) creating a huge glut of homes for sale. Yet average sales prices continued to rise throughout this period, up 28.6% from $146.98 to $189.05 per sq. ft. Meanwhile demand fell 16.5%, with sales per month dropping from 8,490 to 7,093. It was as if everyone believed the laws of supply and demand no longer applied. Of course we found out by 2007 that supply and demand really did matter and the bubble burst explosively in 2008 causing untold damage to the economy and family finances.
It's a question of timing. Supply and demand do control pricing, but in real estate there is a very long time delay between cause and effect. That timing can be extended even further by sentiment. In 2005 sentiment was off-the-charts positive - "irrational exuberance" ruled the roost and caused people to make decisions that in hindsight look crazy. Not just homeowners and developers, but especially lenders and the investors who fueled the credit surplus. Those few of us who tried to warn people in early 2006 that prices would fall dramatically were treated a bit like Harold Camping predicting the end times.
The opposite seems to be happening now. Sentiment is very negative. Everyone seems convinced that prices can only fall further, yet demand is rising and supply has been falling like a rock dropped off a cliff for 6 months now. It comes down to one simple fact: people believe what they want to believe. The facts do not exert a significant influence.
Here at the Cromford Report, we only deal with facts and figures, not beliefs, so here is the market update.
Sales - We are currently recording 9,814 sales in May. This is up 3.5% over April and up 10% over May 2011. This is a very strong sales total because in May 2011 sales are not being boosted by the government bribe (sorry, tax credit) that applied in 2010 for buyers of owner-occupied homes.
Pending Sales - At 13,268 on June 1, pending sales are down 0.4% compared with May 1 but up 6.7% compared with June 1, 2010. Again an extremely strong indicator of demand. In 2010 demand fell sharply during the summer after the tax credit expired, but there is no sign so far that the same will happen in 2011.
Active Listings - At 31,346 on June 1, active listings are 9.4% below May 1 and 23.3% below June 1, 2010. Supply is clearly falling fast. However this understates the situation because a large proportion of the active listings already have a contract against them. In fact there were 7,737 AWC (active with contingent contract) listings as of June 1, 2.6% higher than the very high level we saw on June 1, 2010. If we exclude these AWC listings, we have only 23,609 active listings, down 12.7% in a month and down 28.8% compared with last year. This is almost 60% down from the peak of October 2007.
Supply Versus Demand - The average months supply (active listings divided by monthly sales rate) for the period Jan 1, 2001 to June 1, 2011 is 5.9 months. Right now we have a 3.2 month supply. Yet we read everywhere that there is a "glut of foreclosed home on the market". What we are reading may have been true in November last year. It is not true now. In fact available supply is really even tighter than this. If we only count active listings that don't have a contract the months supply number drops to just 2.4 months. Anyone who thinks this is a "glut" is not living in the real world. They should just ask anyone who is actually trying to buy a home right now. Competition is intense, and not just for bank-owned homes and trustee sales. It is also heating up for short sales and normal listings. If you are trying to buy a home that is at all desirable and is priced at market or below, expect multiple bids. If you are a seller, then you only need to price realistically and your home well sell quickly.
(All the above numeric information is for "all areas & types" within ARMLS.)
Records Being Set
In
For
For
Exceptionally strong market activity is occurring in
Prices
After a bump upwards between mid April and mid May, average sales price per sq. ft. is back down a little at the beginning of June. Although we are still some 2% to 3% above the market bottom in January and February this year, in most places prices have not yet responded to the huge changes in supply and demand. Why not? Please refer to what happened in 2005, but with everything upside down. The rules of supply and demand have not been lifted. Of course, you don't have to believe me, but please don't say I didn't warn you.
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Sincerely,
Adam Tarr PC
Citywide Real Estate
Phoenix, AZ
adam@WeAreAZRealEstate.com