Mav Realty

Real Estate statistics for the Desert Ridge area of NE Phoenix.  This data, gathered from ARMLS includes single family detached properties in Desert Ridge, Aviano, Fireside and Wildcat Ridge.  The overall Phoenix metro market finished 2010 strong, with sales up substantially from November.  That held true for Desert Ridge as well.  Sales in December totaled 23 up slightly from 22 in November and strong from a dismal 9 in October.  The median sales price in December was $389,075 up strong from November’s $344,500 and average pricing was up to $388,989 from $355,671 in November.  The November numbers were actually a low aberration from fairly steady numbers in the months before.  Year over year for December saw pricing drop 11.4% from an average of $438,837 in Dec. 2009. Fourth quarter numbers were similar with total sales down 19.5 % and the average price down 12.5%. 

All of this may sound like doom and gloom, but it’s not meant to be.  These numbers echo the overall market and we have been hearing this for a while.  Here are some other indicators to keep in mind.  The days on market has remained fairly steady averaging approximately 3 months.  The ratio of the sale price to the list price has remained somewhat stable as well.  December’s numbers were good with the SP/LP ratio was 98.11%.  This reflects the list price at the time of contract.  Another number to consider is the sale price in relation to the original list price (OLP). That was a healthy 94.6%.  More telling may be the comparison from the 4^th quarter of 2009 to 2010.  Q4 2009 saw SP/LP at96.75% and SP/OLP at 92.29%.  2010 numbers were 97.735 and 91.74%.  So, there was a great split in 2010 which may show a shift in lenders pricing policy, not just trying to dump properties. 

There are positive signs.  Currently (as of this writing) there are 68 active listings, but 75% are distressed (short sales and foreclosures). There are currently 60 properties under contract, 80% are distressed, and the majority are short sales.

Most analytical data I see show an expectation that prices will level off shortly.  If inventory levels can stay static or decrease we will see price stabilization in the long term.  Realty Trac predicts a larger number of foreclosures this year than last which will keep inventory levels moving, but I have also seen predictions of an improvement in the real estate market.

I don’t think anyone expects this to turn around overnight.  The prevailing thought is we will see some stability for a while but no real upswing for a couple of years.  The rental market will become tighter with higher rental rates as distressed homeowners seek new housing. Now may be an excellent time to buy for those who can.  Interest rates are still low and as foreclosure slow down, you will also see many of the people who lost homes or sold short re-entering the market within 2-3 years of their losing or selling the home.  When this starts to happen, and it will, prices will begin to recover. 

Adam Tarr PC
Citywide Real Estate
Phoenix, AZ
480-236-7374
adam@WeAreAZRealEstate.com