Mav Realty

Wow, what a month.  April continued the uptrend in the market that we have seen all this year so far.  The following statistics are for residential properties only, not including land and lots.  April saw tremendous numbers compared April of 2008.  Sales throughout the entire Phoenix metro (based on ARMLS statistics) were up 75.3% year over year for April, while the median price dropped 45.3% year over year.  In addition, sales were up almost 11% compared with March 2009.  These numbers show the nature of the current market.  The large uptick in sales and substantial decrease in the median are reflecting the foreclosures in our market.  Lenders are desperate to get rid of their toxic assets, and there are plenty of investors looking to cash in.  In most areas, the bottom point has been reached with regard to how low the lenders will go in setting their prices.  Large numbers of investors, both seasoned and new are buying up distressed properties, as it is now easy to attain a positive cash flow.  In addition, for most of these properties, there is nowhere but up in value in the long run.

In Scottsdale, sales were up 8.7% year over year while the median price was down 17.1% to $350K.  On a positive note, that median is up $20K or 6% from a month earlier.  Again, these stats reflect a lesser number of foreclosures in Scottsdale relative to the overall market. 

Active listings as of May 1, sit at 42,886.  Considering April's 8442 sales, we are down to only 5.08 months of inventory.  Another positive note is that there are 10,417 properties under contract (pending and contingent) which bodes well for May's numbers.  While these numbers are fantastic news, there is the expectation that we will see a small wave of foreclosures raise the inventory levels.  Some lenders have forstalled foreclosures to ease the market conditions, but many of those will still happen.

What does all this mean?  Once again, I will say the market is still too dynamic to accurately predict what will happen in the market.  My personal experience and the market in general show that there is plenty of activity in the low end.  In addition to the previously mentioned investors, first time buyers are taking advantage of many beneficial programs that are available.  Coupled with low prices and low interest rates, it is foolish for anyone who can qualify to wait.  We will continue to see the decline in median and mean prices reported in the media, which gives the negative outlook.  We will see these figures continue to drop due to the large amount of foreclosures.  But I feel we are basically at the low point on pricing.  The deals are out there now.  I think it is safe to say that if you could analyze the pricing for a year from now, with today’s prices, you won’t be seeing the drastic drop-off that we are seeing compare to a year ago.

Adam Tarr PC, Assoc. Broker
ABR,CDPE,RSPS, ePro

Citywide Real Estate and Investmetns
Phoenix, AZ
480-236-7374
adam@WeAreAZRealEstate.com